One is unimpressive, but not strongly at odds with a recovery.
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) sets the official dates for the beginning and end of recessions.
One might imagine that these are not exciting meetings, but the next few may be livelier.
The trough in output was probably sometime in the summer.
The committee will need to balance the mid-year date for output against the end-of-year date for employment.
Prior announcements by the business cycle dating committee may shed some light on their considerations of income and employment in determining the end of the current recession.
In 2003 the group wrote, Identifying the date of the trough involved weighing the evidence provided by the behavior of various indicators of economic activity.The weakest measure of the four primary indicators that the NBER considers is employment.The NBER's preference for tracking the health of the jobs market is to use Non-Farm Payrolls.This divergence has led committee members to express different views of where the economy is in the business cycle.Following the November employment report (but before last week's disappointing job loss) Robert Hall, who currently heads the Business Cycle Dating Committee, said that the report "makes it seem that the trough in employment will be around December.The blue line is an average of the performance in each measure, beginning with the 1953 recession (where the data is available).